Personal mobility will change in the future. Many younger people will not have a driver license anymore. One futurist who is looking on the movements of car makers and who tries to predict the new mobility is Mario Herger (@mherger; #thelastdriverlicenseholder). He is Austrian but lived the last 14 years in the Silicon Valley in October 2017 he had a presentation about autonomous cars in Zurich. One important part in his presentation was the disruption of cars ecosystem. I would like to show part of his thoughts about how the environment around the cars and their mobility system will change in the common years.
Last September I was in San Francisco and I have seen also several autonomous cars on the street. Many equipped with car engineers who tries to enhance their current algorithms and to improve the software.
In the picture you see an autonomous car near Fisherman’s Wharf. We tried to get in contact with the engineers but they told us, that it is not allowed for them to talk with us. As you can see a lot of this new technology is still hidden and properly many companies are far ahead of their competition and what everybody can see on the street.
Come back to future care ecosystem. I have taken the following information out of Mario’s presentation. I will rely on his presentation and add some comments on it. Today there are 1.7m truck drivers in America. Another 3.3m drivers are driving small trucks. Compared to Germany there are .5m drivers. In the future these drivers are not needed anymore because autonomous transportation systems can take over their work. A point to point transportation can be done faster, easier and cheaper by an autonomous system. Another part are taxis. Currently there is a huge discussion about Uber and Lyft and if it is allowed to transport people without a taxi license. The next step will come soon. Uber tries out to use autonomous cars for their service. This means in the future no driver is use. This will reduce the riding price again because 50% of the cost of taxi are related to the driver. A big challenge will come to the insurance companies. The car insurance market in the US is approx. $200bn, nearly half of it is related to personal car insurance accounts. Nearly 90% of accidents are made through human errors. Can you imagine if AIs’ take over the driving and the accident rate goes dramatically down, what is the remaining business for car insurer. In the future a car insurance premium will be higher if a person decides to drive themselves. The new technology will disrupt the current car insurance industry and properly other entrants will come into the market. There are several other disruptions that will coming into the car ecosystem. Think about parking slots, traffic lights, street signals, speeding control. All of them can be taken over from a car system which controls that. Some futurist predicts that in the future the cities are free from personal cars and that in the future there will be 60% fewer cars because people do not own a car anymore they will rent a transportation system when they it needed.
What we see currently is just the beginning of the disruption of the car industry. Be aware what are the next steps of the disruptors.
Have a look on the following sources: